NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP - The upcoming winter may be warmer than normal, but October was just the opposite, according to Kevin Crupi.
"October was quite chilly," he said.
Crupi, who is a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Negaunee Township, said October was the third coldest since 1952. It was also the sixth-wettest in that time period.
The average temperature for this October was 39.7 degrees, which was 4.6 degrees below normal, Crupi said. Precipitation for the month was 4.57 inches, which was 1.98 inches above normal.
"Everywhere in the Upper Peninsula had a good soaking," he said.
Crupi said the reason for the cooler temperatures and greater precipitation was the same. An upper-level trough stayed over the Great Lakes region and allowed moisture-laden low pressure systems to move in from the Great Plains. That also allowed colder Canadian air to move into the region.
This weekend is predicted to be much warmer than normal for this time of year, Crupi said, and that also has to do with weather coming from the center of the country.
"There's much warmer air from the plains," he said. "A Pacific air mass will be surging into the Great Lakes."
Temperatures today are expected to be 55 to 60 degrees, Crupi said, and 53 to 58 degrees Sunday.
"We're still forecasting temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal this weekend," he said.
Temperatures will cool down at the beginning of the week, but Crupi said they will still be above normal. Monday the high will be about 50 degrees, and Tuesday about 45 degrees. The normal high for this time of year is about 38 degrees with lows in the upper 20s.
Long-range forecasting for the winter is done at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Washington, D.C., and Crupi said they're predicting winter temperatures in the Keweenaw have a better chance of being above normal than not.
However, the center isn't yet making predictions about snowfall amounts, Crupi said.
"There's no clear signal for precipitation," he said.
The phenomenon known as El Nino, which involves the movement of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, will be affecting this winter's weather, Crupi said, but to what extent is uncertain.
"This is kind of a moderate one they're looking at," he said.
There are many variables affecting weather, even down to specific days, but Crupi said CPC is predicting snowfall amounts in the U.P. may be less than normal this winter. However, since most snowfall on the Keweenaw Peninsula is lake effect snow, which can happen suddenly, by the end of winter, snowfall amounts may be about normal.
"They can't specify those (lake effect) events," he said.
Kurt Hauglie can be reached at khauglie@ mininggazette.com.
