“We’re looking at between a 30 to 50% chance,” Brandon Wills said.

Wills is a meteorologist with the Marquette office of the National Weather Service, which covers most of the U.P. landmass as well as most of Lake Superior and parts of Lake Michigan.

“That doesn’t mean that from one day to the next it’s going to be above average, but for that 90 day period,” he said.

It could even mean a dryer-than-usual month or two with a lot of snow falling within a couple weeks, he said. That is the nature of probabilities, and averages.

NOAA.gov This graphic, generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows the probability of above-average precipitation for the months of January, February and March of 2021. It shows Houghton as having a 33% chance of having above-average precipitation during those months.

The average winter that the precipitation is compared to is calculated from a thirty-year span, currently 1981-2010.

“And since 2020 is just about done, then they’re going to switch to a new average starting next year at some point,” Wills said.

The current snowfall average for the Marquette NWS office is 203 inches. Wills said they expect it to drop by several inches when the range updates next year based on lower-than average snowfall in a few of the last ten years.

The three-month prediction from the NOAA for temperatures said there is an equal chance for warmer or cooler than average temperatures.

Wills said that this year has also exhibited a weather pattern known as ‘La Niña’. It has different effects in different places, but locally it tends to cause dryer weather.

“The last 90 days, we’ve been below average in terms of precipitation,” Wills said.

But at the same time, there were record amounts of snow in the month of October, if taken alone. Averaged together, it was dry. Wills said it’s hard to be too specific, and there’s a chance the rest of the season could look like the first half. He doesn’t think it’s the more likely scenario based on the models, though.

“Right now, overall, we’re probably going to be trending towards typical winter conditions with lake effect snow throughout the rest of the year,” he said.

This is good news for snowmobilers and skiers, who have had to leave their equipment in storage so far this winter. According to the Keweenaw Convention and Visitors Bureau Trail Report, snowmobile, cross-country ski, and snowshoe trail systems are beginning to open, though many of them are still warning users of rocks and thin spots on the trails because of the thin snow cover.

Mont Ripley, who began using “snow cannons” to make snow weeks ago, is reporting a snow base up to 18 inches thick. Mont Bohemia is not expected to open until 2021.

The full trail report is available on Page 2A.