Warm fall predicted
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IRON MOUNTAIN -- AccuWeather predicts temperatures from September through November will range two to three degrees above normal in the Upper Peninsula as a warm autumn is expected across much of the nation.
“Outdoor projects and activities which you would typically see winding down during the fall season will continue well into the season for many areas,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
Dry conditions, meanwhile, could lead to a higher risk of wildfires in parts of the Great Lakes region. Locally, the National Weather Service slightly favors below-normal precipitation during the early fall.
The National Weather Service has a neutral outlook on temperatures and rainfall for the rest of August in the U.P. and northern Wisconsin. The fall outlook from NWS is neutral on temperatures for the early season, but favors above-average temperatures from October through winter.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of concern in the central U.P., but conditions are dry to the west, including severe drought in western Gogebic County.
El Nino conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and may strengthen and persist into early 2027, according to NWS. For the U.P., that points to a mild and possibly dry winter.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The effects of each El Nino event vary, but above-normal temperatures are expected worldwide during this cycle, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The heat wave in mid-July was followed by Canadian wildfires sending dangerous levels of smoke into the Midwest. Current air conditions are good, and Michigan forecasters expect levels to range no higher than moderate over the next few days as large fires burn in Oregon and Washington.
Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main severe weather threats in the Midwest this fall, although AccuWeather predicts a few tornadoes are likely.
No injuries were reported as three tornadoes were confirmed in the U.P. on July 20 on Lake Superior between Marquette and Au Train, in Menominee County’s Gourley Township and in Delta County’s Ford River Township.
A tornado that tore through the Fox Cities region in Wisconsin on July 27 resulted in dozens of injuries but no deaths. About 35 structures were destroyed and hundreds more damaged, with the worst devastation in Menasha from winds estimated up to 140 mph.
There have been more than 1,400 tornado reports in the U.S. through July, higher than the historical average for the entire year, according to AccuWeather.