A dry, warm season
This years hunt will be different
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HOUGHTON - The 2025 regional deer harvest was down about 15% compared to recent years, according to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR). State wildlife officials blamed much of the decrease on poor weather and high winds that stopped deer from moving across the region.
This year, early predictions look a lot different for hunters across the western Upper Peninsula heading into the traditional preparation week and the Nov. 15 firearm opener.
According to meteorologist Ben Warren of the National Weather Service Marquette office, long-range tracking models compiled by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate a clear meteorological reversal from the heavy lake-effect patterns that dominated the region last autumn.
“We had a busy November last year, especially here in the central U.P.,” Warren said, adding that while conditions varied slightly across the Copper Country, the interior peninsula ended last November on the cooler and snowier side. “At least here in the central parts, we had some good snow. I think we ended up with 40 or 50 inches by the end of November, but this November is looking almost nearly opposite.”
In Keweenaw County, the road commission recorded a total of 22 inches of snow for November 2025, with 16 inches of that total falling during a single storm system on Nov. 26.
The CPC’s upcoming one-to-two-week outlook indicates a high level of confidence that above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation will characterize the western range through the middle of the month, Warren said.
He added these extended federal forecasts do not predict exact daily numbers. Instead, they show the likelihood of a region being warmer or drier than typical local averages.
“It doesn’t tell you exactly what those temperatures are going to be, but it gives you an idea of their confidence in this period,” he said. “You kind of have to know a little bit about what the normal is for that time period. But, of course, if you’re native to the area, you understand it should be a little bit colder and snowier here by now.”
Warren said that while the data tracks a definitive trend toward a warmer and drier month overall, the regional weather line remains unstable enough to trigger isolated shifts.
“That doesn’t guarantee that on an individual day you won’t see rain or you won’t see a cooler day,” Warren noted. “But it does give us a better confidence that as a whole, the time period will come out warmer and drier than normal.”