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Can the Spurs win the Western Conference Finals?

OKLAHOMA CITY — With just over two minutes to go and the San Antonio Spurs down by 14 points, the back up players checked into the game meaning head coach Mitch Johnson was waving the white flag and giving up on Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. I was certainly disappointed to see them give up on the game, but with how they were playing on Tuesday night, there was little chance they were going to mount any kind of challenge anyway as the Oklahoma City Thunder went on to win 127-114.

Full disclosure before continuing on: I’m a long time Spurs fan. Growing up about an hour away from San Antonio, my family would head out to a game every now and then, and followed them closely on television and radio. Seeing “The Admiral” David Robinson playing with “The Big Fundamental” Tim Duncan was fantastic, culminating in the franchise’s first championship in 1999. Transitioning to the years when Duncan teamed up with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli were exciting as well and I enjoyed their championships in 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2014.

Getting back to this series, what has been most interesting to me is how much a punch, counterpunch dynamic has formed. The first game was emblematic as each team had a lead at different times in the game, and they went into two overtime sessions to determine a winner. Managing to win the first game on the road in this series was huge for the Spurs. The Thunder came storming back in the second game though, rallying to a 122-113 win. Then, the Thunder delivered another punch in Game Three, taking the first game at the Spurs’ home. In game 4, the Spurs held the Thunder to their lowest point total since 2021, winning 103-82 in a dominant defensive performance. Tuesday night, the Thunder increased their offensive pressure and scored the highest total in the series so far with 127 points.

Knowing the Spurs are two games away from playing in a championship in 2026 is wild though. There have been a lot of not-so-great years for the team lately, but getting a superstar like Victor Wembanyama is quite an interesting tradeoff. In just his third year in the NBA, he’s been putting on quite a show in the playoffs. Unfortunately, that show hasn’t been on display every night the Spurs have a game as his inconsistency is really hurting the team.

Looking at the numbers he has put up in the Spurs’ wins versus losses is a pretty clear-cut story. Game One, in which Wembanyama played for 49 minutes, he scored 41 points and had 24 rebounds. In their second win in Game Four, he scored 33 points and was dominating the paint (the area right around the basket), both on offense and defense. In this most recent loss, Wembanyama had 20 points, but 12 of those were from free throws. Five of his 15 shots were beyond the three-point line, meaning he was nowhere near the paint, and he also missed all five.

Before I was able to actually watch Wembanyama play a game, I heard several commentators saying he was “changing the game,” and I wondered if that was really true. Now that I’ve watched a few games during the playoffs, I can see how he is bringing something uniquely different to the game. Players that normally cut to the basket to try for a layup will literally change directions to avoid getting too close to Wembanyama. He is certainly capable of making three-pointers (he shot 34.9% on threes in the regular season), and he can dunk the ball without his feet even leaving the ground, so guarding him is a problem when he’s on offense.

Though I’ve seen some great basketball players over the years, Wembanyama actually brings something different and he is exciting to watch. His teammates are pretty exciting in their own right, and it is important to note many of the Spurs’ core players are very young as well. Stephon Castle is in just his second year while Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant are both in their first year. When De’Aaron Fox was injured, the average age of the starting lineup for the Spurs was 22.4. Fox played seven games in the playoffs before this year, bench player Harrison Barnes played in 71, but none of the other starters for the Spurs had played in a playoff game before this year.

Inexperience was thought to be the Achille’s heel for the Spurs, but they proved lots of people wrong as they made short work of the Portland Trail Blazers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. While they had to play more games to get to the finals than the Thunder, the young team is learning from every one of them.

Still, the Thunder are the defending champions and have only made their team stronger since they won it all last season. In their four regular season matchups in 2026, the Spurs won three showing they were capable of beating the league’s best team (the Thunder had a 64-18 record in the regular season). Including the playoffs, the Thunder have only lost 20 games, but five of them are at the hands of the Spurs.

I mention all of that to say the Spurs definitely still have a chance to win the last two games of this series, despite their lack of playoff experience. What will they need to do that? Several things, starting with slightly better officiating. I’m starting with that one to get it out of the way, and I’m not talking about the foul calling, but the smaller things. Twice in Game Five, the ball clearly went off of a Thunder player, but the refs gave them the ball. On one of those plays, Spurs’ coach Johnson was on the floor calling out for and making the hand motion for a review, but was ignored by the refs and the play continued. He was called for a technical foul after that as he loudly complained about the no-call for a replay. Did those calls mean the Spurs didn’t win? Of course not, but momentum is a real thing in basketball and it killed any momentum the Spurs had two separate times in the game.

While the Thunder held Wembanyama to just 21 points in Game Two, it was mostly because Isaiah Hartenstein was literally holding him for most of the game. Hartenstein also pulled Castle’s hair at one point with a ref watching it, and there was no call. Okay, done with the ref complaining, but for the Spurs to come out on top, they really do need the calls to go their way more consistently.

Second, the Spurs need to play as a cohesive team. They showed that in their Game Four defense masterclass, but they were also passing the ball really well and gave their players great shots. Wembanyama was in the paint consistently which either got him easy scores, or his teammates more open shots. They need to find that style again.

Third, eliminate the insane number of turnovers. In order, the Spurs have 21, 21, 15, 12, and 15 turnovers through the five-game series. Castle and Harper are both being careless with their ball handling, being showy with crossovers instead of keeping the ball away from their opponents.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Spurs need Wembanyama to fully show up in both games. He seemed exhausted on Tuesday night, but if the Spurs are going to get past an excellent and deep Thunder team, he needs to be the player who was the league’s first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year and five first-place-vote earner for the most valuable player. The Spurs are more than a one-trick pony kind of team, but when their best player doesn’t play at his best, they are setting a significantly higher challenge for themselves.

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