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Aspirus COVID-19 press briefing recap – flattening The curve

A fast, high surge of COVID-19 cases could overwhelm the healthcare system in Wisconsin. Government, businesses, the general public, and health care systems are all working together to flatten the curve to decrease the intensity of COVID-19 infections in all our communities.

“Right now, social distancing allows us to flatten the curve and give healthcare time to plan ahead to meet any future demands,” Matt Heywood, President and CEO of Aspirus Inc., said. “If we don’t flatten the curve or reduce spread, by staying at home and using mitigation, we could be quickly overwhelmed as a country and healthcare system.”

Flattening the curve of the COVID-19 impact is a journey. The work being done now is important to being well-positioned to manage the spread of the virus now and in the future. Many experts believe that we will have to wait 12 to 18 months for a vaccine.

“There are a lot of different models and variables that predict the peak. Based on several models, we are now concluding that around late April or May, we will know just how serious the situation is and if the mitigation strategies are working,” Heywood said. “We will know we have reached the peak of the curve when the need for ICU beds begins to decrease across the state.”

Besides mitigation, improving testing availability and turnaround time, getting results in a day can improve contact tracing to reduce spread. Production of needed PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) must also be increased to help ill patients not spread disease and keep caregivers safe.

Using this time to get these things in place will allow us to not have to ramp up again. Aspirus is working to scale up ICU capacity and there are additional opportunities across our system and the state to increase capacity.

Flattening the curve helps us deal with the problem today and provide time to prepare in a more sustainable and normal way as a country to face the next 12-18 months. There is some hope, looking at trends around the world, that seasonality will help us. Spread may be reduced in the months with warmer temperatures, but you may see another surge in the fall because a vaccine would not yet be ready.

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